This week we explore how resilient consumer spending and unexpected inflation dynamics shape our economic landscape and influence investment strategies.
Key Insights:
- Retail Resilience: March saw retail sales increase by 0.7% month-over-month, with the control group sales (a key GDP indicator) rising by 1.1%.
- Revisions Reveal Strength: February’s retail data was revised to 0.9% month-over-month, indicating sustained consumer strength.
- Inflation Concerns: March CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, with Core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) climbing 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.
- Economic Growth Estimates: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a Q1 growth rate of 2.8%, up from an earlier estimate of 2.4%, driven by robust consumer spending.
- Interest Rate Outlook: Persistent inflation pressures suggest that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates longer, with potential rate cuts not expected before September.
More from TWO THE POINT
- Two the Point — Juggling Growth – Economy Expands Amid Unyielding Inflation
In our weekly video series, we highlight one observation we think is most important regarding the economy and the financial markets. This week we discuss resilient consumer spending and unexpected inflation dynamics. - Two the Point — The U.S. Economy’s Strong Performance and Market PotentialIn our weekly video series, we highlight one observation we think is most important regarding the economy and the financial markets. This week we review the robust performance of the U.S. economy with a look at the labor markets.
- Two the Point — Global Trends and OpportunitiesIn our weekly video series, we highlight one observation we think is most important regarding the economy and the financial markets. This week we explore the robust dynamics of global growth in 2024, highlighting key economic indicators and opportunities for investors.
