The U.S. economy remains uncertain; April’s data offered some relief, but underlying trends suggest continued caution. In this week’s update, we explore the balance between resilience and risk, and what it means for portfolios as policy clarity slowly emerges.
Key Insights:
- ADP private payrolls rose just 62K in April, well below expectations and the weakest since July 2023.
- Wage growth for job-stayers slowed to +4.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace since June 2021.
- Q1 GDP contracted -0.3%, though consumer spending and business investment remained positive.
- Core PCE inflation rose 3.5% YoY in Q1, up from 2.6% in Q4, keeping pressure on the Fed.
- Markets expected +130K nonfarm payrolls and a steady 4.2% unemployment rate in Friday’s BLS report.
- Policy uncertainty, from tariffs to Fed timing, continues to weigh on confidence and growth expectations.
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