Inflation cooled in May, but the job market is starting to show signs of stress, and rising geopolitical tensions are adding new layers of uncertainty. We’re entering a stretch where steady hands and strategic diversification matter most.
Key Takeaways:
- CPI +0.1% MoM (2.4% YoY): Inflation data surprised to the downside, offering the Fed some breathing room.
- Core CPI held at 2.8% YoY: Underlying price pressures remain stable, suggesting no rush to ease policy.
- Jobless claims rose to 248K, the highest since October, while continuing claims hit a cycle high at 1.956 million.
- Producer prices up just 0.1% MoM but signs are emerging that businesses are beginning to pass along tariff costs.
- Middle East tensions lifted oil prices, reversing recent disinflationary trends and keeping markets on edge.
- As expected, the Fed stayed in wait-and-see mode amid mixed data and policy crosscurrents.
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