Two the Point — The Quiet Strength of the Economy

Despite a string of uneven data releases, the broader economic picture remains more balanced than headlines might suggest. While inflation pressures remain a focal point, firm labor market trends and healthy business investment continue to provide foundational support for the U.S. economy.

Key Insights:

• Consumer sentiment rose to 60.7 in June, up from 52.2 in May, reflecting a tentative recovery in household confidence despite geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
• Year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 5.0%, down meaningfully from 6.6% in May, indicating a potential easing in consumer cost concerns.
• Core PCE inflation rose to 2.7% year-over-year in May, up from 2.6% in April, signaling sticky underlying inflation even as headline prices remain relatively contained.
• Durable goods orders surged 16.4% in May, while core capital goods (a proxy for business investment) rose 1.7%, suggesting continued corporate commitment to long-term growth.
• Initial jobless claims fell to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, the lowest level in a month, underscoring a still-resilient labor market even as insured unemployment edges higher.