Two the Point — No Cuts, No Clarity

Fresh economic data underscores the Fed’s dilemma. Growth is cooling, but inflation pressures are heating back up, particularly in the wake of tariff-driven supply chain stress. With monetary policy on hold and geopolitical risks escalating, strategic positioning matters more than ever.

Key Insights:

• June PMI Composite Flash slowed to 52.8 from 53.0, with services cooling (53.1) and manufacturing stable (52.0).
• Input prices surged, especially in manufacturing, citing tariffs, fuel, wage, and borrowing costs as key drivers.
• Existing home sales rose modestly to 4.03M units but remain 0.7% below last year; the median resale price hit $422,800.
• Inventory reached 4.6 months’ supply, the highest since July 2016, signaling a normalization in housing availability.
• The average monthly mortgage payment has doubled since pre-pandemic levels, now above $2,000.
• The Fed held rates steady but raised 2025 inflation expectations to 3.1% (core PCE) while trimming GDP to 1.4%.
• Geopolitical risks are escalating following U.S. strikes on Iran, adding complexity to an already uncertain macro backdrop.