Two the Point — Thankful for Resilience: Markets and Momentum in 2024

This year’s market performance is a powerful reminder of the resilience of U.S. equities, even in the face of persistent uncertainty. As we approach the close of 2024, let’s celebrate the enduring strength of the market and focus on disciplined strategies for the year ahead. Wishing everyone a happy and reflective Thanksgiving Holiday!

Key Insights:

• Market Performance: The S&P 500 is up nearly 25% year-to-date, marking three of the past four years with gains of 25% or more.
• Historical Context: Large market gains of 25% or more are more common than many realize, occurring in roughly 27% of calendar years since 1928.
• Earnings Strength: Earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to grow by about 9% in 2024 and about 15% in 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending, improving corporate margins, and continued innovation in sectors like AI.
• Quarterly Momentum: Q3 2024 S&P 500 earnings grew by about 8.5% year-over-year and are expected to grow by about 12.2% in Q4 2024, with notable strength beyond the largest tech companies.
• Behavioral Lessons: Successfully timing the market requires getting two decisions right—when to exit and when to re-enter. The latter is often the harder decision, underscoring the importance of staying invested.